Pre-Conference Talk by Gerald WOO | Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked EncOder-based UnIveRsAl TIme Series Forecasting Transformer (MOIRAI). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, MOIRAI achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. 

This is a Pre-Conference talk for Forty-first International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2024).